Nigeria’s opposition coalition, the African Democratic Congress (ADC), is facing a potential challenge ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
The coalition, led by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and ex-Governor of Anambra State Peter Obi, aims to defeat President Bola Tinubu’s All Progressives Congress (APC).
However, analysts believe that the coalition’s success hinges on its ability to establish a level playing field for intra-party democracy. “Ultimately, the success of the coalition would depend on their establishing a level playing ground for intra-party democracy to produce the best candidate,” said Jibrin Ibrahim, a professor of political science.
The coalition’s key figures, including Atiku, Obi, and former Minister of Transportation Rotimi Amaechi, have all expressed interest in running for the presidency. Amaechi believes in the power-sharing principle between the North and South, stating, “I led the fight against the PDP government. Why? Because there was an agreement that the government at that time would spend four years.”
Amaechi added that he would serve only one term if elected president, saying, “I won’t do more than four years… The South must be allowed to complete its tenure.” Obi also expressed willingness to serve for four years, stating, “If there is any form of agreement that will restrict me to four years in office, I will comply with the agreement.”
The issue of zoning, or power-sharing between regions, is a major fault line in Nigerian democracy. The ADC’s decision on whether to zone its presidential ticket to the South or throw the race open to all contenders could make or mar the coalition.
If the party decides to zone the ticket to the South, it would automatically shut out aspirants like Atiku, who has been seeking the presidency since 1993. On the other hand, if the coalition throws the race open, southern aspirants might feel shortchanged contesting against more experienced northern rivals.
The PDP’s experience in 2015 and 2023 serves as a cautionary tale. The party’s decision to jettison its zoning policy and throw the contest open led to a breakaway of five governors and contributed to its defeat.
As the ADC navigates these challenges, its ability to produce a credible candidate and unite its members will be put to the test. Will the coalition’s ambitions be derailed by internal power struggles, or will it emerge stronger and more united? Only time will tell.
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